Brisbane home values are set to rise in the next two years, with apartment prices tipped to blitz houses as they rebound from the oversupply glut, a new report reveals.
The housing market in regional Queensland is also set for bumper growth, with home values in central Queensland and Mackay forecast to jump more than 10 per cent in 2021.
That’s according to the latest CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast, which shows the national housing market moving out of its correction.
Moody’s Analytics economist Katrina Ell said Queensland’s housing market had fared better than most other states.
House values across greater Brisbane are on track to fall 1.8 per cent this year, led by weakness in South Brisbane house values, before gaining 2 per cent next year and rising another 3.7 per cent in 2021.
Apartment prices are expected to grow faster than any other capital city in the country after a trough in late 2019 to early 2020.
Moody’s Analytics is forecasting growth of 5.4 per cent in apartment values across Brisbane in 2020, followed by a further 6.5 per cent jump in 2021.
“The house market will be in a slower lane than apartments in terms of growth, but I would say they’re both in a good position to continue to experience decent growth,” Mrs Ell said.
“Brisbane didn’t experience the same sort of run up in values that Sydney and Melbourne did, so it hasn’t fallen as hard.
“We’re expecting through 2020 and 2021 more subdued growth than Sydney and Melbourne, but that’s not necessarily negative. It’s just we’re not seeing the same sort of rebound because Brisbane didn’t get the run-up those other markets saw.”
Mrs Ell said apartment supply in Brisbane had fallen significantly since its peak in 2016/17 and was now at a more sustainable level.
“So, now we have a much weaker supply of apartments coming online, combined with the fact we’re seeing demand starting to pick up as a consequence of the RBA being in the middle of an easing cycle, and that’s pushing up apartment values,” she said.
Queensland’s housing market was also set to be supported by an improving state economy, which would continue to benefit from strong commodity exports — in particular metallurgical coal and liquid natural gas, according to the report.
“Economic development and construction and mining job growth in the state should give a lift to dwelling prices, especially in regional areas where infrastructure projects will be targeted,” she said.