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ONE of the nation’s biggest banks has quashed fears of a housing crash by changing its outlook, tipping a surge in Brisbane house prices next year.
Economists at ANZ believe their earlier forecast of a 10 per cent drop in capital city house prices is “too pessimistic”, and are now predicting gains of about 9 per cent in 2021.
Perth is tipped to have the strongest growth over the next 12 months of 12 per cent, followed by Brisbane at 9.5 per cent and Hobart (9.4 per cent).
“An early vaccine rollout and the resulting lift to sentiment could drive larger price gains than we currently anticipate,” ANZ economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell write in the bank’s latest housing outlook report.
“That said, we think regulators would be quick to step in with macro prudential measures if the market looked be overheating.”
Low interest rates, government stimulus measures and a bounce in confidence as the second wave of the pandemic comes under control are expected to mitigate the risks imposed by higher unemployment and low population growth in 2021.
“The housing sector is turning a corner. After falling since April, national house prices were flat in October and look set to rise over coming months,” the economists write.
“The strength is largely being driven by owner-occupiers, with low interest rates appealing to buyers in secure employment.
“This is the case for upgraders as well as first home buyers.”
The bank says many deferred home loans have now moved back to regular payments, and some will move on to more medium-term forbearance measures.
“While there will be some borrowers who find themselves with too much debt given their changed circumstances, our view is that accommodative lender measures will mitigate the downside risk these sales pose to overall prices.”
ANZ is the second of the big four four banks to revise its outlook for house prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economists at Westpac who were forcasting price falls of 10 per cent at the start of the year are now predicting a 20 per cent rise in Brisbane property prices over the next two years — the highest of any capital city.
Source: Real Estate AU